feat: add modular BTC and TSLA evidence monitor

[MAD42CAP]

Summary

• add a read-only, modular Market Evidence Monitor for BTC and TSLA
• reuse OpenAlice BarService for separately attributed daily/hourly bars with explicit fallback health
• add evidence-chain analysis, competing hypotheses, confirmation/invalidation, semantic de-duplication, evaluation, alerts and scan receipts
• add a responsive /market/evidence dashboard with deterministic demo data, CSV/JSON export and opt-in browser notifications
• persist compact observations while storing only the latest chart series separately
• add a loopback-only live acceptance command with a read-only default and explicit --scan mode
• quantize continuously moving derivatives values at decision scale and retain last valid context through provider outages

Product boundary

This increment never reads trading accounts and never submits, stages, approves or cancels orders. It organizes observable evidence; it does not claim to identify a market actor's intent.

Verification

• pnpm exec tsc --noEmit
• cd ui && pnpm exec tsc -b
• monitor plus live-acceptance closure: 18/18 passed
• pnpm market-monitor:preview -- --check
• pnpm market-monitor:acceptance -- --help
• full production build completed successfully
• isolated Linux runtime passed read-only and live-scan acceptance for BTC and TSLA
• live BTC exercised healthy, timeout-with-retained-context and recovery transitions
• live TSLA exercised duplicate suppression and a meaningful new-news transition

The broader host-dependent suites reach PTY, Unix-socket, installer and temporary-Git tests that cannot run in the managed container. No Market Monitor test failed. Native desktop/narrow-window and long-window scheduling acceptance remain to be performed on macOS before this draft is marked ready.

macOS acceptance

1. Run pnpm dev.
2. In a second terminal, run pnpm market-monitor:acceptance for read-only checks.
3. Run pnpm market-monitor:acceptance -- --scan to exercise BTC and TSLA evidence scans.
4. Inspect dist/market-monitor-acceptance.json, then observe scheduling and alert de-duplication for 24–72 hours.

Review state

Draft only. Do not merge until macOS live-data acceptance and the planned 24–72 hour duplicate/alert observation pass are complete.

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